Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is to exploit the Bayesian approach by using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Another shortcoming of NN is the lack of flexibility to customize different distributions for the weights and neurons according to the data, as is often done in probabilistic graphical models. To address these problems, we propose a class of probabilistic neural networks, dubbed natural-parameter networks (NPN), as a novel and lightweight Bayesian treatment of NN.

Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is to exploit the Bayesian approach by using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Another shortcoming of NN is the lack of flexibility to customize different distributions for the weights and neurons according to the data, as is often done in probabilistic graphical models. To address these problems, we propose a class of probabilistic neural networks, dubbed natural-parameter networks (NPN), as a novel and lightweight Bayesian treatment of NN.

Linear Gaussian State-Space Models are widely used and a Bayesian treatment of parameters is therefore of considerable interest. The approximate Variational Bayesian method applied to these models is an attractive approach, used successfully in applications ranging from acoustics to bioinformatics. The most challenging aspect of implementing the method is in performing inference on the hidden state sequence of the model. We show how to convert the inference problem so that standard Kalman Filtering/Smoothing recursions from the literature may be applied. This is in contrast to previously published approaches based on Belief Propagation.

In most treatments of the regression problem it is assumed that the distribution of target data can be described by a deterministic function of the inputs, together with additive Gaussian noise hav(cid:173) ing constant variance. The use of maximum likelihood to train such models then corresponds to the minimization of a sum-of-squares error function. In many applications a more realistic model would allow the noise variance itself to depend on the input variables. However, the use of maximum likelihood to train such models would give highly biased results. In this paper we show how a Bayesian treatment can allow for an input-dependent variance while over(cid:173) coming the bias of maximum likelihood.

Bayesian methods have been successfully applied to regression and classification problems in multi-layer perceptrons. We present a novel application of Bayesian techniques to Radial Basis Function networks by developing a Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution which, for fixed basis function widths, is analytic in the parameters. The setting of regularization constants by cross(cid:173) validation is wasteful as only a single optimal parameter estimate is retained. We treat this issue by assigning prior distributions to these constants, which are then adapted in light of the data under a simple re-estimation formula.

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Most previous works treat the locations of the inducing variables, i.e. the inducing inputs, as variational hyperparameters, and these are then optimized together with GP covariance hyper-parameters. While some approaches point to the benefits of a Bayesian treatment of GP hyper-parameters, this has been largely overlooked for the inducing inputs. In this work, we show that treating both inducing locations and GP hyper-parameters in a Bayesian way, by inferring their full posterior, further significantly improves performance. Based on stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we develop a fully Bayesian approach to scalable GP and deep GP models, and demonstrate its competitive performance through an extensive experimental campaign across several regression and classification problems.

Neural networks (NN) have achieved state-of-the-art performance in various applications. Unfortunately in applications where training data is insufficient, they are often prone to overfitting. One effective way to alleviate this problem is to exploit the Bayesian approach by using Bayesian neural networks (BNN). Another shortcoming of NN is the lack of flexibility to customize different distributions for the weights and neurons according to the data, as is often done in probabilistic graphical models. To address these problems, we propose a class of probabilistic neural networks, dubbed natural-parameter networks (NPN), as a novel and lightweight Bayesian treatment of NN.

This paper presents a novel variational inference framework for deriving a family of Bayesian sparse Gaussian process regression (SGPR) models whose approximations are variationally optimal with respect to the full-rank GPR model enriched with various corresponding correlation structures of the observation noises. Our variational Bayesian SGPR (VBSGPR) models jointly treat both the distributions of the inducing variables and hyperparameters as variational parameters, which enables the decomposability of the variational lower bound that in turn can be exploited for stochastic optimization. Such a stochastic optimization involves iteratively following the stochastic gradient of the variational lower bound to improve its estimates of the optimal variational distributions of the inducing variables and hyperparameters (and hence the predictive distribution) of our VBSGPR models and is guaranteed to achieve asymptotic convergence to them. We show that the stochastic gradient is an unbiased estimator of the exact gradient and can be computed in constant time per iteration, hence achieving scalability to big data. We empirically evaluate the performance of our proposed framework on two real-world, massive datasets.

Link prediction is a fundamental task in such areas as social network analysis, information retrieval, and bioinformatics. Usually link prediction methods use the link structures or node attributes as the sources of information. Recently, the relational topic model (RTM) and its variants have been proposed as hybrid methods that jointly model both sources of information and achieve very promising accuracy. However, the representations (features) learned by them are still not effective enough to represent the nodes (items). To address this problem, we generalize recent advances in deep learning from solely modeling i.i.d. sequences of attributes to jointly modeling graphs and non-i.i.d. sequences of attributes. Specifically, we follow the Bayesian deep learning framework and devise a hierarchical Bayesian model, called relational deep learning (RDL), to jointly model high-dimensional node attributes and link structures with layers of latent variables. Due to the multiple nonlinear transformations in RDL, standard variational inference is not applicable. We propose to utilize the product of Gaussians (PoG) structure in RDL to relate the inferences on different variables and derive a generalized variational inference algorithm for learning the variables and predicting the links. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that RDL works surprisingly well and significantly outperforms the state of the art.